Thursday, August 17, 2017

Watchers for the 8-18-17 trading session

DRYS

Finished almost unchanged. See my previous comments for approaches. Potential short.



DIGAF

First red day Supernovae. Finished red under 5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is moderately likely given the average red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was sizable, range also. Substandard at best short signals yet watch it.


SSI

B/O scan. I like it long back over 2 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Exiting below 1.90 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?


KOS

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 6.78/holds. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 6.60 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts.


SPEX

In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 1.97/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 1.75/and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 1.81. The fade is more likely given the price action on Thursday, but keep an open mind.


UPL

Hammer scan short. The tail is not too long to use the high as a stop level unless the position is very  large. Can use a bit above Thursday's open for risk control. Trigger is below the low of last time, here under 8.15/holds. Avoid all big gaps, especially down ones. If it gaps under the trigger let it test/hold/fall from there 1st before entering. No longs. The other idea is to play for a 8 fail as the ceiling. Stop above Thursday's high at the most if more aggressive. 


LYTS

Parabolic Sar scan. I like it long over 6.14 and holds. Modest volume on the rise Thursday, a fair sign for new longs. Place a stop under the close Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low Friday. Keep flat on all big gaps and avoid shorts. Long too on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. If it gaps over the trigger a bit, wait for a test/hold/perk to enter.



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Trade review 8-17-17

I got some of them right on Thursday...

Hits:

DIGAF

Early upside reversed to go under the open and ended down over 4% today.

MDXG

Early upside failed 17 to win short, ending down almost 5% today.

Misses:

MNKD

Early upside reversed to burn longs, ending down over 2% today.

CVA

Early upside reversed to end down over 1% today.

FENG

Eventual short trigger reversed again ending still down under 0.50% but above likely entry prices.

Push:

DRYS

Mostly upside denied shorts, ending up under 0.50% today.

TREVF

Mostly downside denied longs, ending down almost 5.5% today.

Totals:
Daily record: W-2-L-3-P-2
40%

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Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Watchers for the 8-17-17 trading session

DRYS

First red day Supernovae. Finished red over 9.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is fairly likely given the sizable red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was moderate, range larger. Substandard at best short signals yet watch it.



DIGAF

New Supernovae scan return. A staggered 5 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume high Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.



TREVF

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 1.18) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 1.10 Needs to keep above the Wednesday close, or at least above 1.10 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 1.16 are ideal for aggressive entry.



MDXG

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Closed up over 1% on Wednesday off a gap up open that ended above the debut. Stop just above the Wednesday session high (17.36) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Sizable volume on Wednesday means it may have some chances to work. A 17 fail may be ideal. Avoid big gaps/longs. Panic dump?



MNKD

B/O scan. I like it long back over 1.46 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise, a good sign for new buys. Exiting below 1.40 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?



CVA

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 13.90/holds. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 13.70 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts.



FENG

In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 3.96/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 3.61/and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 3.75. The fade is more likely given the price action on Wednesday, but keep an open mind.




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