Thursday, November 16, 2017

Watchers for the 11-17-17 trading session

LEDS

Supernovae, still maturing. See my previous comments. Possible short.


AMDA

First red day Supernovae. Finished red over 7.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is decently likely given the big red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was low, range a bit wider. Reasonable to average signals at best but watch it.


YECO

Another initial red session Supernovae. See AMDA above. 


CHFS

Treat as for another initial red session Supernovae. Possible short.


CARV

New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume huge Thursday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


MRDN

Another new Supernovae. See CARV above. Similar situation.


CADC

Another new Supernovae. See CARV above. Similar situation.



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Trade review 11-16-17

I  got some of them right on Thursday...

Hits:

AMDA

A steady move down ended down over 7.5% today.

YECO

A steady move down ended down over 3.5% today.

DS

A move up ended up almost 5.5% today.

Misses:

ENPH

With commissions this lost ending near the entry price long, up 6.5% today but also with a stop out likely.

Push:

LEDS

A big gap up denied shorts, ending up almost 8.5% today.

UPL

A move up won slightly ending up over 0.50% today but probably breaking even on commissions.

SBS

Early downside and no trigger long ended up less than 0.50% today.

Totals:
Daily record: W-3-L-1-P-3
75%

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Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Watchers for the 11-16-17 trading session

LEDS

New Supernovae scan return. A 4 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume huge Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


AMDA

Another new Supernovae scan, see the above for general approaches.


YECO

Again, see LEDS above. Another new Supernovae scan similar situation. 


DS

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 4.80) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 4.25. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close, or at least above 4.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 4.74 are ideal for aggressive entry.


UPL

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 8.71/holds. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 8.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts.


SBS

B/O scan. I like it long back over 9.52 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Decent volume on the rise, a weak sign for new buys. Exiting below 9.25 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?


ENPH

I like this long over 2.72 with strong volume. It needs to hold over 2.61 on a test to remain/be viable as a long. Possible early red to green long entry if it opens weak. Also a long on spiking up at or near the bell for a long scalp. Keep flat on real weakness or a fall fail at 2.61 if tested. Avoid all big gaps, as usual. 



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