Sunday, January 23, 2011

Watchers for the 1-24-11 trading session


See my analysis from last time, it mostly still applies. Over extension still ripening. Getting near to a correction. Patient stalking and waiting for trades to come to you, rather than chasing over eagerly, is the key to success.


Revenue winner that was a great long the past 2 sessions has now gone Supernovae. Volume still strong but lessening. Box and drop or wait for decay. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid longs and big gaps, especially downward ones. Fade on morning panic or conventional confirmed weakness cues.


New Supernovae scan return. Analysis is similar to that of BLTI except that volume has not faded yet so it might not be done. Up close to 2% more after hours.


Supposedly no news catalyst, but now a Supernovae scan return. Several up days now but only one with stellar volume. Analysis is similar to that for NVGN except no after hours moves.


Volume is tapering off on this choppy, fake out prone maturing Supernovae scan return. That means a distribution day looms, hopefully Monday. Keep flat on further greening or spiking up from the bell. Fade weakness only. Analysis is similar to that for BLTI except that the volume progression is even less impressive.


Possible 7 test looming here. I want to see how it reacts there. If it takes and holds 7 on volume, this is a long. While in theory a failed test could be faded, it is up after hours and the best play will be the long if we get this ideal set up. Long scalp at minimum if it spikes up at or near the gun. As usual, a short on immediate dumps or confirmed weakness cues near the open, but more likely a scalp.


Possible early red to green long, or the same on spiking up from or near the bell. Avoid shorts; on reddening or weakness early, keep flat. Took out another consolidation area of resistance around 3.50-3.60 which will also give early feedback to prospective longs. If we soon fall under that, the prospects do not look good.

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