Sunday, March 20, 2011

Watchers for the 3-21-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Strongest volume yet on the rise, and it closed on the highs. If it gaps up, it might yield a rapid green to red or gap and crap entry on Friday. I am in cash on any strength/greening. More of a gradual rise over 5 days. Conditional entry. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades.
This one is the one that closed at 0.58 Friday, not the one listed for a 5.60 close, as seen on Google Finance. Tweezer bottoms on the daily a few sessions back at least hint at support levels to cue stop placements.


First red day Supernovae. Finished essentially unchanged last time, so more down side might be realistic. It weakened intra-day. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the nominal degree of reddening on Friday. No after hours quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was big, not the best sign to fade.


See my comments from the past few sessions, they mostly still apply. Except, now with a decent red day the play is to avoid longs and enter on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumps whenever they arise. Keep flat on positive price action, like a gap up and prices consistently above the opening price level after the 1st 5 minutes. The idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Fade only weakness, no top fishing. The volume on the dump was not spectacular, hopefully more folks will be shaken out on Monday to short.


The gift that keeps on giving for longs, but consider at this point booking some profits, especially on a gap up. It took out some technical resistance a few days ago, and it is likely that it's being manipulated. Steady inching up might give way to a big retreat where gains from many days fall in minutes, so be aware. See also my previous comments for this since it first came on scan. In play both ways, since it greened Friday a cautious long with constant monitoring and a hand ready on the sell button is possible if it continues to sport its characteristic positive price action hue. A short on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic like dumps, as well. Usually, it's easier on a play like this to wait for the dive, and try for more gravy redness, if shorting. If you enter on the original fall day, you have to be pretty quick about it and might to accept some slippage.


Another big runner that had its 1st setback Friday. That means the idea is to play for more down side gravy on Monday, if it morning panic style dumps or yields confirmed weakness cues. Keep flat on more upside hue price action. The down side volume was not spectacular on Friday, which is a decent sign for future shorts. It often pays to wait for an initial red day to angle for an entry. Frequently if it continues to redden it will be less exciting and involve less range on the prices, but it is a practical strategy. See also my previous comments.


The volume stick printed on this Friday is more impressive than any in the recent history of the stock. This advanced over 53% that day and I am hoping for more early/initial upside to long scalp if it spikes up at or near the bell Monday. Possible EOD exit if it holds up and looks full of positive price action. An early red to green long possible if it gaps modestly down and tries to fill the gap. 2nd day not likely to be as green. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on weakness. Earnings on the 25th of March, no run up yet aside from the last session.


Positive PR and speculation news catalyst sent this blast from the past carcass soaring 140% on Friday. I am skeptical of a big run, unless it's being promoted again. Even then, look at the daily chart. Keep flat on positive price action or early greening. Short into morning panic style dumps at any point or confirmed weakness cues. It could still green a bit, but trash is trash and hype like this if not backed up with reality comes back to earth eventually. Most of shorting successfully involves patience, and inaction until it dives.

Off table, I am watching CNP for a run at new 52's (17.00) they just won a court ruling that helps them. I am watching JAMN for more upside inching, which should be constantly monitored if longing. I am looking to short an overdone JVA on profit talking at 18.00ish if it tops out there. It made it to 8.14 before closing under on Friday. Any fail in those areas are short bait, as is a dump at or near the gun without a test, etc.

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