Thursday, March 03, 2011

Watchers for the 3-4-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by nearly 10% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the solid degree of reddening on Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Volume declining, which is not bad news for shorts. No change after hours so if it's in play we'll just see.


See my comments for ROYL which this play resembles strongly. Today this closed above the opening price, but negative due to a gap down which did not fill. Sell volume not real impressive, which may not be good. Closed down by less than 6.5% so maybe we can get a crack finally Friday. Only pounce on clear weakness.


See my comments for last time, they mostly still apply. Has showed weakness twice now and might finally yield an entry short that holds on Friday. 10 up days now, but the latest was only by 1% and the volume is finally starting to taper off. One can just scalp a fail to red or hold for as long as it keeps falling, at any rate. It has tended to yield early down side that recovers over several minutes, so perhaps an EOD close is out.


New Supernovae scan return. Stock price has doubled in 5 sessions, and that rise was a bit more gradual than on a typical one. A fade entry on confirmed weakness cues. Avoid longs, keeping flat on consistently strong price action. Box and drop if need be. Easiest is a flat or nominally up or down open and immediate reddening to short into. This might be an EOD exit with even selling. Heavy volume sell dumps are short scalps. Avoid all large gaps. Volume is still strong, so it might not be done yet. Do not try to top fish this.


Scamex stock with a big earnings surprise. No run up at all. Down to 4.90 after hours, possible 5 test looming. If we can take and hold that on volume with acceleration, long on that, which probably involves an early red to green move. Possible scalp long on spiking up at or near the bell. EOD hold on the 5 hold scenario as long as it stays above it. Keep flat on a fail to take 5 without spikes up or on a quick fail there on a gapper above it at game time. Too much risk of a squeeze. Some resistance right at 5, but if that goes between 30 to 50 cents of upside at least is possible. Avoid any huge gap up or down. Nice volume today.


Strong secondary break out from a Bull pennant-like formation. Bigger volume than the initial run begun on the 1st of the month. Up a bit after hours, possible 4 test. Any spiking up at or near the bell is a long scalp. A take and hold of 4 on volume is a long with a possible EOD exit if it holds up and steadily climbs. Also a long consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price tomorrow after the first 5 minutes with even range climbing candles. Finally, a quick gap fill and a rapid red to green if it barely reddens reverses to positive is a long. Certainly possible is a gap and crap under the previous session close, but I am flat on that for this new 52 week high stock. If it morning panics, you can short this but I keep out. Avoid all big gaps.


OTC stock with a delayed reaction to an earnings report that was positive? Double revenue? This might be in play both ways on Friday. First as a long scalp on spiking up at or near the bell. Or as a short scalp on immediate heavy volume selling at or near the open. I only like the scalp if long, but if it just inches above the opening price level and holds it could be longed with constant monitoring. If it goes red I am more likely to hold it a while as a day trade. Bad internals and a suspiciously powerful close could mean manipulation.

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