Monday, April 18, 2011

Watchers for the 4-19-11 trading session


See my comments for the day following the red sessions on the 6th and 13th of April, 2011 which mostly still apply. Both times, this came back green with a vengeance. The idea is to play for more down side gravy on day 2 if it sports confirmed weakness cues or heavy volume dumps. Waiting several minutes in to enter might really be advisable Tuesday. It has faked out shorts on the above mentioned 2nd day affairs. If it looks strong early or consistently prints above the opening price level after at least 5 minutes of trading, be flat. In such a case, you can risk a long with constant monitoring, but be careful, the rise is hardly in its initial stages. Clearly if it takes and holds 2.75+ that is a long, since it has been the new ceiling of late.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down barely red last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is only moderately likely given the modest degree of reddening on Monday. No after hours quote. Wait for a fail. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was big, not a great sign for shorts.


Similar comments in terms of entry/exit strategies and play management ideas as for EAHC which this one resembles, except that it fell over 27% today so more down side might be less likely. Keep flat on further greening/strong price action, etc. See my comments for the above stock as a general guide, with the caveat.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. This one gapped up to a new price range. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Up a bit less than 1% A/F. A pull back entry on a 17 test that solidly holds and retools back upwards is possible for a long. Also possible is a fail back under at the above level, which is a short, probably covered intraday when its momentum stalls & it bounces.


Again, see my previous comments they have not changed much. This can squeeze, being a low floater as we saw today, but it rarely holds its spikes. I am betting this session was a fluke, and we might see some chance to enter on weakness as a short. Keep flat on early strong price action. If it sells off steadily early, consider booking half to all as a short before lunch. A play like this is more apt to be an intraday trade with constant monitoring. The volume has been impressive on the buy side, though.


3 White Soldiers. Took out 7 and has some resistance at 7.50 just up ahead and more at 8. No A/H quote but if it gaps over 7.50 and heads back under on a test it could be shorted. If it opens flat or barely down it might be longed on a successful 7.50 test and holds. Probably has no more than 50 cents of upside, though. Also a short on confirmed weakness cues or immediate heavy volume sell dumps, etc.


I'm a bit more optimistic on this one. No A/H quote. Possible 5 test looming. Analysis is similar to that for LLEN above. If it gaps over 5 and falls back under, it's a potential short. If it opens flat or barely down it might be a long on a successful 5 test and holds. A live price action call, as it could go either way. More upside potential on the Bullish scenarios though than on the above stock. Also a short on confirmed weakness cues or immediate heavy volume sell dumps, etc.

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