Monday, May 09, 2011

Watchers for the 5-10-11 trading session


As usual, see my previous comments, but after 3 sessions of inching up, we might be due for a red or no range one. This has nearly closed the distance from the red candles beginning on May 11, so some bag holders are going to be on the look out for an exit point. Still, it's and incher long on positive price action by assumption for another 10 cents or so. Keep flat on weak price action cues aside from early red to greens.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over than 12.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the decent degree of reddening on Monday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell price volume was medium, range was more intense, a mixed bag here.


Like the above play, this also had a 1st red day as a Supernovae. Analysis is quite similar to that play, so see the comments for entry/exit/play management tips. Less range and less sell volume is one difference, both of which bode better for shorting odds if signals surface. Fell under 10% as well, another better odds sign.


This one is in play both ways. First, as a long on opening spikes up at or near the gun for scalp with in exit on dying momentum early on, or a sell of at least 50% of the shares if it continues to slowly advance from then. Also long on a red to green move early, which is more likely given it's down 4.5% A/H now. Huge volume, news catalyst on order deal with U.S. Army which sent shares soaring over 54% today. It could also dump hard out of or near the gate to short scalp, which can be held longer on more gentle fading, using a partial sell of shares again. Another possibility is a try to fill the gap and a fail at the flat line, which is another fade entry.


Some stubborn technical resistance at 3 that could be taken and held for a long tomorrow. It punched through finally but closed under. Another failed attempt is a short entry if it opens under and stalls at our key level. If we gap reasonably over, wait for several minutes to see if it holds a floor test there and perks up off of it, before going long. If it falls under, fade it. Stop placement anywhere above 3.09 or more tightly (if possible) using the daily high tomorrow if shorting. Place it more conservatively under 3 if a long set up arises. Since this is in play both ways, live price action will be required to determine which one is going to be most plausible.


This really got hurt today, and some on the markets are fast rating it as a sell. It penetrated 4 but closed just over. No change A/H though. If we gap under a bit and sell off hard, a possible fade scalp beckons. Safer in such a case would be to wait on a fail at 4. If we open flat and fall the same rules apply. If we open over, wait for a test and fall under to enter short. Avoid longs on success upwards at 4, keeping flat on bargain bounces. Avoid all big gaps. Often wipe outs like this have 2nd day gravy down side, despite the volume/range.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No A/H quote change. Nice gap up B/O which propelled it above 8.20 today. A deep correction on prices over months has been filled. The question is whether or not 8.25+ and holds is in the cards. Nice 1st quarter results and mention today.

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