Monday, May 16, 2011

Watchers for the 5-17-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 31.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is a lot more likely given the huge degree of reddening on Monday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was quite modest, price range inter-session was much wider.


Another 1st red day Supernovae. See my comments for the above stock, which this play resembles, for hints on entry/exit/play management aspects. Selling volume was also moderate on this one, but unlike the above play it fell just over 8.5% today so more down side is less unrealistic and less risky to short into here.


New Supernovae scan return. A measured move up over 5 days which closed off of the highs but above the open. Volume is rising fast. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down just a tad A/H.


Another new Supernovae. See my comments for for the above stock which this one basically resembles, for tips on entry/exit/play management strategies. A difference between these two plays is here the volume has been more or less steadily increasing. I like that in terms of odds on a better pop down to fade into. Every day has been an upwards daily candle with some gaps. Some distribution should arrive soon. This one is the classic 5 days up chart pattern, although it's true that we did make new highs today on a lower volume print.


Nice B/O on average volume. Cuppish correction with a take and hold of 1.20+ provides stop placement or entry cues with correlated price action. A pull back on a test of the above level that holds and perks up off of there. Stops for longs just under that level. A short possible on a fail there, falling back into the canyon. Also new 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. No A/H quote. A potential long here is more likely to arise than a short, for various reasons.


This may not be done yet, so be careful, but a budding over extension is in the works to fade. Last 2 days with falling volume but closing higher. It might dump at or near 9 to short into, with good tight stop placement just over today's high. A big gap at about 8 was recently filled. A short on morning panic like dumps whenever they arise or confirmed weakness cues. Avoid longs, keeping flat on sustained strong price action or spikes at or near the gun. I hope that does not happen as I do not usually like top fish timing set ups.


Food Network Unwrapped segment blurb catalyst that advanced 420% today is a huge potential short. Big volume, fleeting PR most likely. It's possible it could spike up hard from the gun, even on a gap up, to scalp long, but that gap up might also crap at once, too. Clearly a short on morning panic like dumps with volume whenever they arise, or confirmed weakness cues. Ideally, it just opens flat and dumps steadily with vigor. It's down a bit A/H though an early red to green long might look possible, I only like the spike scalp up as a Bull, with an early exit on dying momentum candles. Much better chances once this eventually fades, longer holds, too. News like this seldom has long legs, so it either dumps tomorrow or soon, most likely. PR link here:

Off record, I like IGXT for a pull back red to green long if it holds 0.75 (if tested) as it's down A/H. It might keep going. Shorts are possible on a fail fall back under the above price and holds. The long is the most ideal.

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