Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Watchers for the 5-18-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down only 1.5+% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is a a lot less likely given the bare degree of reddening on Tuesday. Down less than 2% A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was quite modest, price range inter-session was much wider.


Another 1st red day Supernovae, see my comments for the above stock, which this play resembles, for tips on entry/exit/play management routes. Some differences in this one are much greater sell volume, big range, and it fell by nearly 21% today. This means more down side is a lot less likely and the play is less promising.


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed on the highs and above the open. Volume is rising fast. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No obvious catalyst. No A/H quote.


An over extension play last time, now a Red floater scan return. A classic one, which traveled nicely with some gap ups to the top of the Bollinger bands and had a modestly red day today. The plan is to play for more 2nd day down side if it panic dumps at any time or sports confirmed weakness cues. Keep flat on further greening/positive price action. No change in the A/H quote. Gap down open today less than ideal going forward. Low volume distribution print, which is a good sign to offset that. 9ish possible stop out area.


Higher priced earnings release catalyst play with no run-up that broke out nicely on huge volume. Other firms have just invested millions in them, says a Monday PR. Also new 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Up about 1% A/H. This might change early to yield the red to green reversal and entry long, anyway. No shorts, keep flat on true weakness.


I'm long above 6.94 and then 7.00 as well on a test and hold. Possible swing. One could scale in using that strategy with a partial buy on each milestone as and if they arise. Stop placement below 6.50 seems logical. Not into a short here, keep flat on really weak price action. An early red to green move long is fine, though.


Tweezer Tops. I am not long (although some would argue it's a play in theory) on a take and hold of 0.08+ but I am short on a test and fail or on a flat or nominally down open morning panic like dumps wherever they arise or confirmed weakness cues, etc. Also short on a modest gap over and a fall fail back under our key level. I like the short potential due to technical resistance at the above level on the daily chart. A bit cheap, but oh well. Low volume riser, all the way on the current trip up. Avoid big gaps in either direction, esp. down.

Off record, but a judgment call to leave it off the main list, is TSTF which is an earnings surprise without a run up on giant volume. Treat it roughly like LONG in the above list. It's up rather much going into tomorrow, though. That's one reason I omitted it, though I am flat on real weakness, etc.

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