Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Watchers for the 6-1-11 trading session


Oh, come on! Like the symbol we've been following WAMKQ this Supernovae that had just 1 red day is over extending more each day. Accumulation volume is declining. The key is to wait for a panic dump or confirmed weakness cue before entering. Box and drop if need be, but this is going to a beauty once it fails. Patience is a virtue, but especially for shorts. Keep flat on more positive price action, it's been a hard squeeze.


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume is still strong. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up about 1% A/H.


New Supernovae scan return. See my comments for the above stock, which this play mostly resembles, for general entry/exit/play management strategies. Biggest volume yet on the rise. It may not be done yet, despite 2 very green days. Never assume it cannot go higher just because it is up so much, only short the wounded.


This is the 1st time as a new Supernovae scan return. Unusually, its also a first red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 2.5% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the low degree of reddening on Tuesday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, price range moderate. Not bad signs overall for shorts.


A similar situation here as for the above stock. See those comments for general entry/exit/play management tips. Two differences for this new Supernovae/1st red day of it scan return are it sold off on much heavier comparative volume and it fell by over 26.5% today so the odds are less inviting for shorts, who face a bigger risk of a bounce and buyers coming in as a result. Only fade clear weakness and bolt on any signs of trouble.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. No A/H quote. No shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Decent B/O on some volume/momo.


Big sale PR news catalyst could have legs tomorrow, at least early on. Long scalp on spiking up at or near the gun. Long also on an early red to green move. Down A/H that could help with such an entry. Any positive price action, like trading consistently above the open after the noise candle, is a potential long. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on real weakness. This gapped and moved into a new higher price range in 1 day, retaking both the 50 and 200 day SMA's. Some technical resistance around 7.45 so getting over that and 7.50 would help.

Off table, I'm watching MCET for more idiots to arrive to long scalp into at or near the gun tomorrow or a panic dump during the same time frame to fade scalp into. A live price action situation. Short also on our usual confirmed weakness cues. If it falls, it's more likely to last longer than a long, which is only a quickie if it spikes up. Not on my main list due to price level.

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