Monday, June 27, 2011

Watchers for the 6-28-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 11.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is fairly more likely given the high degree of reddening on Monday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was average, but range big. A mixed bag for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days and big. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down about 2% A/H.


Another new Supernovae scan return. See my comments for the above stock, which this one roughly resembles for general entry/exit/play management tips. One difference is this has moved up in one day, not 5. It's down a bit over 0.5% A/H. Up on a report over a deal with Pfizer, this might yet have legs. That means it's possible that the reddening after market might green early and we see another up day, but probably less spectacular and more likely including some profit taking. I say avoid longs and wait to short clear weakness.


I include this play with some reservations. A 1st red day Supernovae gravy down side try, it already has had an over 9% fall day today, on the heels of Friday's gap up with a close lower than the open but still positive due to the gapper. This means you can argue it has already had 2 red sessions, and is due for a bounce, hence making risk/reward less attractive. Fair enough, but since the initial "red" day was not a true one, I think this might yield a bit more gravy, so if and only if it sports clear confirmed weakness cues, it's a potential short. See my previous comments for details on entry/exit/play management, etc.


Nice B/O from a long ascending triangle like consolidation area. Could use a bit more volume. Also new 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (17.46) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Monday close or at least over 16.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Monday or better yet the high. Medium volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is rather far away to use for risk management via stops so I would prefer the conservative approach or the one tomorrow. Several inching down sessions from a downtrend in the daily chart before today's move up, indicating possible reversal. Also a B/O filter scanner.


I'm still waiting to fade this one clear, confirmed weakness cues. It rose less than 1% today on peak volume since the rise began a few days ago. If it falls under 4.20 and especially 4 it's fade bait. Might not be done yet, and given the float uncertainty, if you enter short and it greens, be prepared to jump ship and cut your losses.

Off record, SAPE is another 52's play, see my comments for INTX above, which this pick resembles. Another B/O on medium volume to new yearly highs, a decent sign for future longs. Needs to hold above 15 ot at least 14.60 on pull backs aside from any early noise or a red to green move to remain viable as a buy.

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