Thursday, July 07, 2011

Watchers for the 7-8-11 trading session


Again, see my previous comments for general hints on entry/exit/play management aspects. This closed lower than it opened but positive due to a gap up. Volume on the buy side declined, and unless it is just consolidating before another move up, another red session out of this one is possible if it weakens enough.


Also see my previous comments for details. Little is different. This finished unchanged and is still in play for additional reddening if it shows sufficient weakness.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down 18% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Thursday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was large, range equally so. Not good signs for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed on the hod and above the open. Volume prints are increasing now. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down a bit over 2% A/H.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (3.21) and holds. No A/H quote change. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Thursday close or at least over 3.00 at worst on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice move on medium volume to challenge the previous yearly high again after a correction.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today or better yet the high. The 50 day SMA at 1.25 has been vanquished, a good sign if it holds on tests. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Sizable volume on the rise today, a negative for new buys. Keep flat on real weakness aside from the usual r/g. No A/H quote.


Another B/O play. See my comments above for general tips, these are similar situations. I like it long above 1.31 and holds. The big volume on the jump today is not a plus. Up a bit A/H. The trigger should come early.

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