Sunday, September 11, 2011

Watchers for the 9-12-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed above the open and under the hod. Volume small most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Drug test hype catalyst.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down 24% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is possibly a lot more likely given the large degree of reddening on Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was big, range equally so. Not ideal signs for new shorts.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Friday and also the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a nice sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably too far away to use for risk control via stops. Must keep above 4.00 to remain viable as a long, 3.90 at worst. Avoid all big gaps or shorts.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play above the close or high of Friday. Needs to stay above 1.00 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign. Watch 1.16+ as well, if it can take and hold that it longs might really be in business.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed below the open but 4%+ on Friday due to a gap up. Stop above the previous day session high (8.73) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Friday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Big level sell volume Friday which is not optimum for fades. 8 fail desirable, respect stops.


Stubborn stock for shorts, but I still like it as a fade on a 1.70 fail and holds. Or on heavy volume dumps at any time, especially early. Get on 1.94+ and holds, avoiding longs and all big gaps. Red session on 9-6.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (12.15) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice chart. Volume on the move up medium, which is a neutral sign for new longs. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at minimum over 12.00 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Down 0.5%+ A/H. IBD favorite.

Off table, keep watching CIIC for a true fail to fade. Stubborn stock, exit 1.08+/enter under 1.00 and holds.

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