Monday, November 14, 2011

Watchers for the 11-14-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Actually, an old one hitting on scan again after 2 red days making new highs. See my comments on this originally for the 11-9-11 trading session. They roughly apply. Volume nearly matching that of the 8th, but closing under the open well off of the highs. Also making my Red Floater scan. Up about 1% A/H. Fade only weakness, avoid top fishing, big gaps and longs.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down 6% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the medium red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was small, range modest, Not unfavorable signals for new shorts.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (1.98) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart to challenge 2. Volume large today, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 1.90 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote change.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed red on Friday a bit less than 1% on a gap up. Stop above the previous day session high (1.08) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Friday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Friday means it might have just average chances to work. 1.00 fail would be ideal, it ultimately held today. If it goes it might have bit more still for shorts. No A/H quote. Avoid all big gaps and longs. Out of 9 sessions running it had closed even or better until Friday, a good sign.


Call me crazy or hunch playing, but this consolidating Supernovae has almost pennant moved recently and seems poised to either break up or down decisively soon, perhaps Monday. Sell volume was very light on the 3 down days but the buy volume was very strong in 2 of its 3 up sessions. The conclusion is this in play both ways now, as a long on spike ups at or near the bell or above 9.50 or as a short on panic dumps at any time or confirmed weakness cues, such as trading under the open Monday or Friday's close after 5 minutes. If it gaps, the levels to go long or short at will have to be tested first to enter, respectively. Avoid all big gaps. Down less than 0.5% A/H. A live price action situation.


B/O scan. I like it long above 1.03. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is arguably not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote.Some resistance around 1.15 which if taken and held, could yield more gains. If it does not spike up at the outset and retreats, letting it test and hold/perk off 1.00 first before buying might be prudent. Modest float, a plus.


A bottom fishing expedition long (dead cat) bounce try here. Hopeful floor at 5. Letting it test/hold/perk off of there before going long might be sensible, unless it spikes up at or near the gun to scalp buy. 6 red sessions running with the biggest one in range and sell volume coming on Friday. Such plays often have to be watched for a few days more, since the bounce is not always immediate. No shorts, keep flat on more reddening, or moves under 5. No A/H quote. Avoid big gaps. If it gaps under 5, buy only on retaking of it. A falling knife.

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