Monday, November 21, 2011

Watchers for the 11-22-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed under the highs and equal to the open. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up near 1% A/H.


Also a new Supernovae, this has analysis similar to that for the above stock, see those comments for general tips on entry/exit/play management angles. Differences include 3 of 4 up session on small volume. This might bode ill for premature over eager shorts. Stops a bit above 10.85 on fades. No A/H quote.


See my previous comments. Virtually unchanged. Incredibly, I have not given up yet on this potential bouncer. Selling volume can hardly get lower anymore and still print red, knock on wood! No A/H quote. Patience...


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 23% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is sadly likely given the big red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range more sizable. Arguably mixed signals for new shorts. No A/H quote.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high of Monday. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 1.60 on pull backs to remain viable as a long. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote. 1/2 position scale in over 1.75?


B/O scan. I like it long back over 0.63 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Huge volume on the rise, a poor sign for new buys. Resistance at 0.60 is clear on the daily chart, so some could fade on a fail there, but I'm only a long if it sets up. Down about 2% A/H. Potential early r/g long. 1/2 position possible for above 0.60 holds and the rest over 0.63.


Another bottom fishing expedition potential long and possible timed swing play. Overdone, and new Sucking Alpha article might persuade a few idiots to bargain hunt. Long on spiking up at or near the gun or trading above the open after the noise candle, etc. Stops below the low today or the initial 30 minute on tomorrow. No A/H quote. Avoid all big gaps and shorts. Sell volume still strong, so it might not advance yet, but watch.

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Anonymous said...

GEDU => "Enters Into Merger Agreement With Pearson Plc at $11.006 Per ADS"

You still think it is up so absurdly and it's short?

Big T said...

Refer to my comments for tonight's list. Yes, I knew about the particulars. It did make my technical scan.

And yes, no matter how good the news the stock market is all about irrational exuberance, even here.

Seriously, one never shorts strength, only weakness.

Profit taking (here) is evident in live price action before one shorts, if one is competent. This can occur even if the fundie driven gap is never filled.

This holds even on pure B.S. pumped plays, which are POTENTIAL shorts on evidence of caving, not presumed shorts before that fact.

This error is a leading cause of squeezes of shorts, along with its close relative, top fishing with no confirmation of reversal, etc.

Big T

Big T said...

Please also refer to my post on how to use this site, the 1st linked URL in all of my posts below content.

Big T

Anonymous said...

Props to you, today fraud report was released by Absaroka capital on GEDU

Big T said...

Thanks, but I cannot take full credit!

Such plays even when it hits a new price level due to supposedly legit fundie news can have trades on them, but this one was hard to make work. Not a surprise it later got panned, though. Most of these firms are crap, in the end...