Monday, February 20, 2012

Watchers for the 2-21-12 trading session

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New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up with 1 red day which closed under the highs and above the open. Big buy volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. A 1.60 fail of some kind may prove pivotal, unless it dies out at 1.75ish on a retest.


BCRX

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 4.58) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Friday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 4.25 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Resistance broke on daily chart over 4.50, watch over/under.


BDCO

A former runner with real chances of squeezing early, eager shorts. It's low float ensures that. A possible early r/g long entry.  A pullback holding 10 and perking off there might be longed, too. As is a break over 11/holds.  No shorts yet, keep flat on real weak price action. Also long on spiking up at or near the bell as a scalp. This is a live price action call, with the above entry parameters. If this reverses on you, get out at once.


ROYL

Another low floater which could see more upside Tuesday with analysis similar to that of the above stock. See my comments there for more details. The risk of squeezing for shorts is greater than that for the reverse. Needs to hold 5.50+ and perk off there to remain in contention. Get out if it heads back under if a long fires.


PLG

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Ended up a bit over 0.50% on Friday via a gap up that closed below the open after mostly up days. Stops just above 1.55 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Modest buy volume on Friday which means it may have average at best chances for shorts. Avoid all big gaps, especially large gap downs. No longs. No A/H quote.


HBAN

A triple top. Long above 6.11/holds. Possible early red to green long. Long also on spike ups at or near the bell as a scalp. No shorts, keep flat on real weak price action. No A/H quote. Medium buy volume on the rise so it may have average chances for an encore. Likely to slow burn all day, whichever direction it takes.


XCO

B/O scan. I like it long back over 7.75 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Decent volume on the rise, a tepid sign for new buys. Exiting below 7.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g?


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