Thursday, April 12, 2012

Watchers for the 4-13-12 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed at the highs and above the open. Volume increasing the past few days, but moderate. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on up price action, avoid buy scalps.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 18.5% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the big red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was small, range moderate. Mixed signals for new shorts. Stops over 4.


Another 1st red session Supernovae. See my comments for the above, which it roughly resembles, for analysis. This only fell 1.75% on rather modest volume, so a lot more down side is feasible. No A/H quote.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 5.02 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is arguably not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Exiting below 4.85 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g? No A/H quote.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (2.99) of Thursday. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 2.90 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote.


I like this short on a fall fail back under 6.50/holds or on panic dumps at any time. Or on confirmed weakness cues. No longs. Down a tad A/H. Avoid all big gap downs. If it gaps to 7ish or just over that or below, it might be top fish faded on a sell there. So it's possible 2 fade point areas exist.


This is up over 1.5% A/H but I like it on early weakness and reversal red to green as a long above the open, flat line and especially over 7 after the noise candle. If it gaps above 7 let it test/hold 1st before buying. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts. Keep flat on real weak price action & big gaps.

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