Sunday, April 15, 2012

Watchers for the 4-16-12 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 11% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This fairly likely given the big red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was small, range moderate. Mixed signals for new shorts. Stops over 0.35.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 19.64) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume large Friday, a lame sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 18.75 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. More conservatively, needs to stay over 19.50 if it triggers.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 4.01 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is arguably not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Exiting below 3.90 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g? No A/H quote.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (10.20) of Friday. Low volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is likely not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 10 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote. Thinly traded, keep that in mind.


I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 7.50/holds. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping. No A/H quote. Keep in mind some plays like this go on to become Supernovae scans; it would not surprise me if it overtakes 7.50 and keeps going a bit. Stops above Friday's high at worst. A gap over 7.50 test/fail 1st.


See my above comments on another over extending stock for general tips. This is being promoted and thus propped up, squeezing shorties. It could squeeze you, too, if you are brave or foolish enough to not box to drop this or do not wait for clear weakness. I like it on panic dumps at any time, where several days of gains could be lost in a few hours. This might die around 2, though, so be careful. Get out on reversals. No longs.


I like this long over 1.31/holds. If it gaps over, let it test/hold/perk off there before entering. It could dive again at the outset without testing, but I'm flat on that. Yes, it's a promotion, but over 1.25 monitored buys optional.

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