Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Watchers for the 4-25-12 trading session


Once again, see my comments from last time and several past sessions. Nothing has changed. Peak volume today, hopefully a real dump will happen soon. An unbelievably overdone move here. Potential short, no longs.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 27.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. Fairly likely given the huge degree of reddening today. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range more imposing. Relatively mixed signals for shorts.


Another 1st red session Supernovae. See my comments for the above play, which roughly resembles this one, for play management and analysis details. Closed south under 10% so chances for more reddening are better here than for the other play, though selling volume was pretty strong. No A/H quote.


New Supernovae scan return. A 4 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume small for many days, now large. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on up price action, avoid buy scalps. A/H -1.76%.


Another new Supernovae play. See my comments for the above stock, for details. Conditions are roughly similar to use for analysis. Closed below the open off a big gap up on big volume +19%. (Rackwise.Inc.)


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 9.06) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume medium Tuesday, a tepid sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 8.75 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. More conservatively, needs to stay over 9ish.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (10.69) of Tuesday. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 10.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote change. Candle follows a hammer on the down side, with modest initial range of today's stick, a really decent entry signal for buyers.

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