Saturday, June 23, 2012

Watchers for the 6-25-12 trading session


Yet again, see my previous comments. Still in effect for the potential short. Almost a doji Friday and peak volume, hopefully a crack on this stubborn equity will happen in my lifetime!


New Supernovae scan return. A 6 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume mixed most days, now increasing. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote. A 0.40 fail of some kind may prove pivotal.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 3.52) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Friday, a weak sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 3.30 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote.


I like this short on over extension on a gap and crap top fish or better a fall fail back under 12.50/holds. Avoid big gap downs. Also short on confirmed weakness cues or panic dumps at any time, possibly scalping. No A/H quote. Keep in mind many plays like this go on longer than seems rational; it would not surprise me if it overtakes 12.50 and keeps going a bit. Stops above Friday's high or (12.88) at worst.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (4.84) of Friday. Big volume on the rise, which is a poor sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 4.65 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. Conservative exits under 4.75. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 4.10 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 4 or at worst 3.97 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g possible to buy.


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low (13.35) of Friday. Small volume on the drop, which is a good sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed above Friday's close, too. The high on that day is not far away to use for risk control via stops. Ideally keeps under 13.71ish on any pull ups to remain viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs.

Off table, keep watching ARNA for more tanking, get out on successful 10+ moves. Short on panic dumps at any time or confirmed weakness cues. Any 10 fail on a test either gapping over and falling back under or reaching for it and giving way about there are fade possibilities. Obey stops. Avoid longs and big gaps.

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