Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Watchers for the 7-12-12 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 14% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This seems reasonably likely given the fair degree of reddening today. Down A/H over 2%. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was big, range more moderate. Mixed short signals at best.


See my analysis for the above play which this one fairly resembles, being another 1st red session Supernovae. Odds are better here given it fell a bit less than 10% and on small volume.


See my previous analysis yet again, little has changed on this over extension wanna-be short. New highs on lesser volume occurred today, an encouraging sign arguably. It like it short on a 2 fail/holds, preferably with a test. No A/H quote shift. Set a stop just over the high today or the initial 30 minute on tomorrow. No longs.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 8 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Strong volume on the rise, a weak sign for new buys. No A/H quote shift. Exiting below 7.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g buy?


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (1.11) of Wednesday. Low volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 1.08 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote shift. Exit on anything under 1 obviously.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Ended down almost 2.5% on Wednesday via a flat debut that closed below the open after 6 up days. Stops just above 1.72 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Low sell volume on Wednesday which means it may have fair chances for shorts. Avoid all longs and big gaps, especially large gap downs. No A/H quote.


In play both ways. 1st, as a fall fail fade back under 3.50. If it gaps over, let it test/fail before shorting. A test from below that fails there works, too. Up A/H over 1.5%. Also a short on panic dumps at or near the bell or in the afternoon. No huge gaps. Long on more upside on a test/hold/perk off 3.50. If this maintains this it could have more. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun for a scalp. An over/under live price action call. Possible red to green long after a weak open and 3.50 test that prevails. Low float, shorts honor your stops.

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