Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Watchers for the 5-23-13 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 20% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is rather likely given the large red result of  Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium range lesser. At best weak/mixed short signals.


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume modest most days, peak Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalps.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 13.84) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 13. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close, or at least above 13 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. 13.50 if conservative. No A/H quote shift.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Closed up a hair on Wednesday off a gap up open that ended below the debut. Stop just above the Wednesday session high (21.07) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Moderate buy volume on Wednesday means it might have unclear chances to work. A 20 fail would be ideal or one at 20.50. Avoid big gaps/longs. Panic dump?


B/O scan. I like it long back over 2.18 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is likely too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 2.10 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g?


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 2.09/holds. Moderate volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 2 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote.


Hammer scan short. The tail is not too long to use the high as a stop level unless the position is very large. Can use a bit above Wednesday's open for risk control. Trigger is below the low of last time, here under 9.80/holds. Avoid all big gaps, especially down ones. No A/H quote. If it gaps under the trigger or 9.94 let it test/hold/fall from there 1st before entering. No longs. Stop above Wednesday's high at the most if more aggressive.

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