Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Watchers for the 7-25-13 trading session


See my previous comments for approaches, still in effect. It had been a 1st red session Supernovae, but soared again today over 35.5% on peak volume. Still looking to fade the enormous rise. Up A/H +0.50%.


Again, see my previous comments. Still looking to fade this. Rose again 7%+ on lesser, medium volume.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down under 0.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is nominally likely given the weak red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was strong, range medium. At best, mediocre short signals.


New Supernovae scan return. A 4 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume modest most days, peak Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalps.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 17.69) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 16.50. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close, or at least above 16.41 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 3.25 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 3 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g?


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low (2.97) of Wednesday. Modest volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed above Wednesday's close, too. The high on that day is arguably too far away to use for risk control via stops. Ideally keeps under 3.05 on any pull ups to stay viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs. Up A/H a bit.

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