Thursday, August 01, 2013

Watchers for the 8-2-13 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 1% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is nominally likely given the weak red result of Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was moderate, range wider. At best, mediocre short signals.


Another initial red session Supernovae. Analyze roughly as for IDN above with some critical differences. This fell over 16.5% today, so a bounce is a lot more likely. Range and volume at least moderate. Up A/H over 3%. Any 3 fail could be ideal.


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume small most days, huge Thursday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalps.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 2.50 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote shift. Exiting below 2.45 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g?


Hammer scan long. The tail is not too long to use the low as a stop level unless the position is very large. Use the previous session open alternatively instead. Trigger is above the high of last time, here above 6.97/holds. Avoid all big gaps, especially up ones. If it gaps over the trigger or 7 let it test/hold/perk 1st before entering. No shorts, keep flat on redness. Decent sell volume, which could mean overt sell interest has mostly waned, suggesting reversal may be almost at hand. No A/H quote. TSE stock.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, real down side on day 2. Closed almost unchanged on Thursday off a gap up open that ended below the debut. Stop just above the Thursday session high (12.34) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Moderate buy volume on Thursday means it may have weak chances to work. A 12 fail is ideal. Avoid big gaps/longs. Panic dump?

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 9) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 7.08. Needs to keep above the Thursday close, or at least above 8 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Up over 2% A/H.

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