Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Watchers for the 8-8-13 trading session

OPXA

New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume tiny most days, huge Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


SR

Again, treat this as a barely red Supernovae, given the consolidation and lack of a true move down. See my previous and initial comments on it for details on approaches. Could head up, but this pattern will change out of holding to something decisive soon. Potential short.


STXS

First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 14% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is fairly likely given the sizable red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range medium. At best, mediocre short signals.


FLST

Another initial red session Supernovae. See my comments for STXS for general approach tips. Fell on at least medium volume a bit less than 13% today. Potential gravy fade.


AEMD

Another initial red session Supernovae. See my comments for STXS for general approach tips. Fell over 32% on heavy volume, so a bounce is pretty likely which will ruin any potential gravy fade as a short.


DYNT

Another initial red session Supernovae. See my comments for STXS for general approach tips. This one fell about 18.5% on small volume. The odds of a bounce are decent, which will ruin a fade entry short. Good thing the volume was so modest, but it's iffy. A 4.50 fail might beckon.


TESO

New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 15.78) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 14. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close, or at least above 14 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote shift. Early sustained prices over 14.50 is ideal for aggressive entry.


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