Monday, November 18, 2013

Watchers for the 11-19-13 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 16.5% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is very likely given the big red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was small, range bigger. Poor short signals, but gravy possible.


Another initial red session Supernovae. See my above comments for general tips. Fell over 8% today, but volume was also modest. Possible gravy.


Supernovae, still maturing. Closed up almost 50% off a big gap open. Looking to fade this, see my comments for last time for general tips, still applicable. Down A/H a bit under 1%.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume rising most days, peak Monday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 2.20) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 2. Needs to keep above the Monday close, or at least above 2 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 2.10 are ideal for aggressive entry.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 5.55 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is arguably too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Moderate volume on the rise, a tepid sign for new buys. Exiting below 5.45 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?


In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 1.98/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 1.90 and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 1.90. The fade is more likely given the price action on Monday, but keep an open mind. Careful, unclear float size.

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