Sunday, December 01, 2013

Watchers for the 12-2-13 trading session


See my previous comments. Down side still possible as gravy given the 26th session and its big gap up close below the open. It rose under 2% Friday. Treat it like an initial red session Supernovae. A 4 crack possible.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 14% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is very likely given the large red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was small, range too. Decent short signals on that, but the gapper hurts.


Another initial red session Supernovae, see my comments for the above, similar play. This one fell over 36%, so the odds of more gravy are even worse, but watch it anyway.


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume small most days, peak Friday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 1.59) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 1.50. Needs to keep above the Friday close, or at least above 1.40 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 1.50 are ideal for aggressive entry.


In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 4.50/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 4.50 and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 4.50. The fade is more likely given the price action on Friday, but keep an open mind. Careful, unclear float size.


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low (1.61) of Friday. Low volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed above Friday's close, too. The high on that day is arguably not too far away to use for risk control via stops. Ideally keeps under 1.65 on any pull ups to stay viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs.

New users: Read my trading guide for my play set-ups!

Review my blog at Investimonials:

Follow me now on Twitter:

Watch my instructional trading videos on YouTube:

Subscribe to Big T by e-mail:

Subscribe to Big T in a news reader:

The blog has a terms of service. Be sure to read it at:

No comments: