Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Watchers for the 3-26-15 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished red over 19% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is rather likely given the large red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range more varied. Mixed weak short signals at best on those counts, but watch it.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day staggered move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume peak Wednesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


Possible short over extension back under 6/holds. 5 straight up days. No longs. Avoid big gaps. 


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Closed down over 1% on Wednesday off a gap up open that ended below the debut. Stop just above the Wednesday session high (12.50) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Modest sell volume on Wednesday means it may have some chances to work. A 12 fail may be ideal. Avoid big gaps/longs. Panic dump?


In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 3.55/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 3.25/and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 3.25. The fade is more likely given the price action on Wednesday, but keep an open mind.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 3.54 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Moderate volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Exiting below 3.40 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low (4.01) of Wednesday. Modest volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed above Wednesday's close, too. The high on that day is too far away to use for risk control via stops. Ideally keeps under 4.17 on any pull ups to stay viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs.

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