Monday, December 05, 2016

Watchers for the 12-6-16 trading session

GLBS

First red day Supernovae. Finished red under 5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the average red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was low, range modest. Decent short signals so watch it.



VNR

New Supernovae scan return. A 4 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume big Monday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.



RCAR

Another new Supernovae. Several up days, see my comments above for approaches on a possible short.



NVCN

Another new Supernovae. Some up days, see my comments for VNR for approaches on a possible short.



BMRA

In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 2.96/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 2.75/and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 2.90. The fade is more likely given the price action on Monday, but keep an open mind.



SPWR

B/O scan. I like it long back over 7.26 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise, a good sign for new buys. Exiting below 7 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?



AGNC

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 18.30/holds. Decent volume on the rise, which is a suspect sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 18 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts.



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