Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Watchers for the 12-29-10 trading session


Only finished negative due to the gap down. See my analysis from last time, it mostly still applies. The short is the ideal play, as it usually is on a Supernovae in bloom.


Hot sector play that might be peaking short term. A long a bit tardy just now most likely. Daily doji print red floater scan return. Plan is to fade early heavy volume sell dumps or conventional confirmed weakness cues should either arise. Remain flat otherwise on strength/greening. Good only for a short scalp or day trade.


Supernovae inspired by a Bloomberg article which is well underway by now making a long tardy, maybe even for initial or near gun spiking up. Profits will have to be taken, even though a "good" news catalyst exists. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or massive sell dumps. Keep flat otherwise. Worse thing that can happen as I have noted many times on such plays, is early spiking north if one is hoping to short. This encourages top fishing entries. Best outcome is a nominally green or red or flat open that soon falters.


New Supernovae scan return. Volume increasing but closed well off of the highs, usually a sign of indecisive momentum. A fade entry on massive sell dumps or confirmed weakness cues. Keep flat otherwise. A lot of you probably like morning spike scalping up forays on plays like these where applicable, but shorting is best.


As suspected, we broke out to the upside. For now. This will crash hard and fast when they finally decide to pull the plug, but it seems to want to test 2. The dump might come there so be careful if early longing this. If we take and hold 2 on volume with acceleration, it might be held longer as a greenie, but I would have entered today on the 1.86 break and would be out at 2 or the first sign of trouble just over that, personally.


Biggest volume yet on the pump. Might have more left, to 0.45 or 0.50 but I would not push my luck, especially beyond the 50 cent mark. They are gonna dump this soon, and remember once they do it will be sudden and violent. Might be strong enough early to merit a long scalp up, with a finger on the sell button and constant monitoring, if it looks strong and gaps up a bit or opens slightly down and quickly greens. If it opens clearly down and looks weak, look to fade it. The short will be the best play by far if you can find shares. Enter on morning panic or confirmed weakness cues on the fall day. That day could easily be in the offing.


If you believe this article, the stock will run for several days at least. I suspect the late volume spike and price moves will continue at least out of the gate or soon after, spiking which can yield a quick long scalp with the option to hold longer depending on how it hangs in there. Top fishing fades are possible on parabolic moves, but they can be tricky to time and I do not advocate them usually. An entry for such is likely to occur here.

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