Thursday, December 30, 2010

Watchers for the 12-31-10 trading session


First red day, Supernovae scan return. Fell almost 21% so less than ideal down side should exist, though. Plan is to fade massive sell dumps or confirmed weakness cues. Keep flat on early strength/greening. The selling volume today was not equal in intensity to the buying counterpart. The ideal outcome would be for it to open flat or barely green or red and begin dumping. A bit late for safe longs.


See my analysis for STVI above, which this play resembles, most of that equally applies. Fell less today than that one, so more down side should be available here.


Some support at 3ish. 2 days of lessening volume distribution worries me about new short positions, even though this should be a fade below 3 on volume. Also a short on standard confirmed weakness cues or massive sell dumps, particularly early. Waiting for a bigger crack may not come, though that is certainly possible and what I originally expected. Nevertheless, I am flat not long on early spiking or strength/greening.


Very strong today, up nearly 77% by the close. I am looking for some morning strength/spiking at or near the bell to long scalp into. Not a longer term hold, probably out well before EOD on any day trade. If this dumps at the outset or sports obvious weakness, I am just flat.


Big option names carried this beast again today. Probably a great swing for the patient as even if it takes a breather tomorrow or soon, it is heading even higher in the next couple of weeks. Actually, if shorts keep getting squeezed early tomorrow it might have more gas left fueled by covering rallies. A long on such price action, and keep flat or hold on weakness if already in this and swinging.


New Supernovae scan return. Peak volume on the run up occurred today. Closed well off of the highs, producing a nice top calling fade. The plan is to try to time an encore if it arises. Better would be a heavy volume dump at or near the open to fade into. Or, a modest gap up or down or flat open that soon goes red. If it spikes up initially instead, a long scalp might be possible, but I would keep flat on that.


Up after hours, this should make another run at 2 with early or from bell spiking up. This can be scalped into long and then that level monitored to see if it can take it and hold it on volume. If so, a longer hold can be considered, possibly an EOD exit. It did so today initially but fell back under by the close. Nice gap and volume increase, seems to have momentum short term. If it just sells off at the outset I would probably stay flat rather than short it. I do not want to risk a squeeze on a rare earth low floater given current market winds.

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