Thursday, January 13, 2011

Watchers for 1-14-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Also a red floater scan return. Plan is to play for more down side on initial or early weakness or massive dumping on volume as a short. Or to fade conventional confirmed falter cues, assuming it opens flat, up or down slightly. As usual, hope against a big gap either way. Stay flat on morning strength and a strong character. Should have bit more as it fell a relatively moderate 8% today.


Supernovae still maturing. Biggest volume yet, so it might not be done. If afraid, box and drop. Avoid trying to top fish. Chase bloody waters, not sharks. Big gaps again not ideal, especially as they tend to encourage top fishing. A fade on massive early sell dumps and confirmed weakness cues. These things often go on longer than is sane, but entering long now is a bit daring. Wait for the wheels to start coming off, then enter.


Now up to 9 in just days for no obvious reasons, and still over extending. Volume print even stronger today than yesterday, so it still might not yet be done. Nevertheless, I am stalking this for a short. See my analysis from last time, it mostly still applies. A 9 test is easy enough to be achieved here, but it's gonna be a nice drop.


Closed on the hod. Hit 3 and might still have a last gasp to long scalp at the outset tomorrow, but I am watching this for over extending price action to fade into. Possible dump on volume on open or just after to enter on short for a scalp or more, depending on how it decays. If a flat or nominally green or red open ensues, a dive soon after the open could be a traditional confirmed weakness cue fade entry. Volume is modest even though new highs are being printed each day, which is one reason only scalping long is advised.


Analyst nod over their insulin product sent this former FDA loser from last November soaring. A gap in the chart is being challenged from below. Nice volume today. I expect more idiots arrive tomorrow for the long scalp on spiking up out of the open or shortly after. Also a possible red to green long.  Hold time depends on how it sustains. Possible EOD exit if it does. Not into a short here. If it sells off on volume  at the open tomorrow or looks truly weak, I am just flat.


News announcement catalyst sent this soaring over 48% today, and now it is up over 12% more after hours. This means a likely gap up, and if shorting, a top fishing entry on dying momentum from hopefully even more parabolic moves via spiking from the gun or just after. A rare case where such a top call fade is plausible. Also a fade on conventional weakness cues, but given the probable gap, more likely taking the form of trading below the opening price in earnest, but any will do. If it spikes up at or near the bell, it might be a long scalp.


Good chance of a bounce long here as the recent 52's on Wednesday pulled back today. An early red to green might yield and entry or just some greening from or near the bell might suffice. This assumes 1 buck holds. If not it could head lower for a short entry. Ideally it spikes up from the gun for the long scalp. A flat open or even a decent gap down might be playable for the same idea if it rapidly perks up.


Another bounce play possible here for the longs. Bottom fishing, since in October it hit 7.01 and now with more selling after hours it is even closer to that possible floor. If we hold 7 and perk up off it, a long of some kind is possible. Might be just a scalp on early greening or longer term if it sustains and keeps above 7. If we breech 7 on volume it is a fade play, which is almost equally possible. Live price action will decide matters.

Unofficially, keep an eye on FRDM for more greening in the form of spiking up at or near the bell. Too cheap for my tastes, but it could spike out of the gate for the long. Also possible is a big dump from the same to short into. Either of these possible plays are just scalps, most likely.

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