Monday, February 14, 2011

Watchers for the 2-15-11 trading session


Supernovae, now maturing. A bit tardy for a long. Might not be done, so box and drop if you are concerned about share availability. Earnings related, so be aware and careful. short only on confirmed weakness cues. Easiest is a flat or barely up or down open and immediate moves south to fade into. Or morning panic dumping to scalp short into. Avoid big gaps as usual, and do not try to top fish the fade, let it come to you.


New Supernovae scan return. Making new highs on ever lower volume. A fade entry on confirmed weakness cues. Avoid longs, keeping flat on consistently strong price action. Box and drop if need be. Easiest is a flat or nominally up or down open and immediate reddening to short into. Or heavy volume selling to short scalp into. Avoid large gaps in any direction.


First real red day for this stubborn POS Supernovae. Finished red by less than .5% last time, so more down side might realistic. If it had fallen more than 10% more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2ish of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2ish. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the modest degree of redness on Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level.


See my comments from last time, they mostly still apply for this budding over extension fade play. Volume is lessening, even while making new highs, so shorts might get a chance soon. This easily took 6.50 on Monday. Possible early heavy volume dumping to fade into. No top fish fading, only attack wounded animals. Keep in mind this IS an earnings catalyst situation, so it is risky to short that. That is why a morning panic like dump to short scalp into is the best set up. You can also fade conventional confirmed weakness cues, but any consistently strong price action requires a flat stance, as the risk of squeezing on this is very high.

KV.A and KV.B

See my comments from last time, they mostly still apply. Ongoing Supernovae that I am trying to fade on a distribution session. Something important has changed, though. News propelled this thing over 40% on both stocks, due to a stock sale deal to institutional investors. This seems iffy, and they intend to use that to pay down debts. Much of the excitement is probably priced in. Up after hours another percent or so. Possibly this spiked up out of or near the bell for a long scalp. I would prefer to wait for the fade entry, it should be nice.


A favorite set up of mine. Near a breakout and new 52's which sit at 12.08. This hit the psychologically important 12 level but closed under. Possible early red to green long. This could occur on immediate or near bell modest selling off and a bounce up. It is up after hours and right on 12. This is a great early feedback type play, since the ability to hold 12 determines if it is a long or a failed attempt to fade into, though longs if they arise by cue are probably preferable. Any take and hold of 12 on volume is a long, as is new yearly highs and holds. The chart says a thousand words, it is stellar, with a nice cup correction to set up a possible trade!


Exhaustion gap looming to fade profit taking. Yes, they have exceeded expectations and all that, but you CAN short scalp gap and crap set ups even on good earnings, if you know what you are doing and fade morning panic like dumps. You can also top fish fade it, WITH a tight stop that you adhere to. You can easily get squeezed and lose big on this kind of play, so it is for experienced hands only. Another ploy is a long scalp on initial or near bell spiking up, assuming any upside is left not already priced in. Enter at your own risk.

Unofficially watching STVI to see if it can hold 4. If so, a pull back entry long might arise. I do not like the volume though, and I agree social media stocks are a bubble, but they are hot now and possible swings. Any fail at 4 means to keep flat. I would wait for the test and holds with a perk up off of there to enter as a Bull.

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