Monday, February 21, 2011

Watchers for the 2-22-11 trading session

KV.A and KV.B

Shorts got more disappointment on this stubborn flier Friday, when it soared yet again. Nevertheless, it remains a potential fade entry on the usual confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style early or afternoon dumping with volume. Also a fade play on more measured distribution, trading consistently below the opening price level. Typically, this is achieved on a flat or nominally up or down open that heads south steadily. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, and avoid all big gaps, especially down ones.Volume rose on Friday.


Treat this like a virtual first red day Supernovae play. Yes, that was Thursday and Friday did yield theoretical gravy, but it was less than 3% and it might have a tiny bit more left to sell. See my analysis on it for last time, it still mostly applies. Avoid longs, keeping flat on early strength/weakness. Keep in mind since it did fall the past few sessions, the odds get worse each time of more. Be prepared to bolt at any sign of trouble.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by only 1.5% last time, so more down side might be kind of realistic. If it had fallen more than 10% less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the modest degree of redness on Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too.


Scamex stock working on over extension, having failed to make a new high in the ongoing run up on lighter volume and closing well off of the highs for the past two sessions. It might not be done yet, but a distribution day should loom soon. A fade entry on confirmed weakness cues or heavy volume dumping early or in the afternoon. No longs. Keep flat on consistently strong price action. Also a fade on more measured selling, which is more likely on a nominally up or down or flat debut, that heads down soon after and trades consistently under the opening price level. A big gap up top fish is possible, on clear fading, but not desirable.


New 52's. Earnings beat by surprise that soared today, no after hours quote. No run up, which is actually helpful for late to the party longs. Great volume. Conditional entry. Long scalp on spiking up at or near the bell. Or a gap fill and and early red to green long. Also long on more measured moves above the opening price level if it just advances. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on consistently weak price action. This means going solidly red or otherwise trading below the opening price level after 5 minutes into the session. Or heavy volume dumping from or near the bell in panic. Situations like this often have 2nd day weak gravy upside.


Another new 52's, much like MMSI which is an earnings surprise. See my entry guidelines for that equity, they apply here about equally. Down a hair after hours, so the timely r/g might be even more likely here.


Red floater scan return. The idea is usually to play for second red day, hopefully with more redness, than the first one. Here, it only fell a tad, so it might pan out. In this case, it's in play both ways since it is double topping almost near 10ish. It needs to take and hold it for a long. Earnings are due the 25th of this month, and it has already had a run up into it the week prior. Also some resistance around 9.80ish. If it falls below 9.70 either by confirmed weakness cues from a nominally red or flat open (it is currently down after hours a hair) or by morning panic style dumping, it is a short. A scalp fade on the panic, a longer term day trade otherwise. Ambitious longs can jump in over 9.80 but I think the short if we get the proper set up is the best route. As usually, avoid big gaps in any direction, but down is worse. A big gap up open might just crap, though.

Unofficially, keep an eye on TUFF as this promotion is really getting overdone. It might sell off as soon as Tuesday, with a fade on the usual confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumps, early or in the afternoon. Longs a bit late to the party by now, but each day it seems to go up a bit more, and it might go on a few more days against all logic. Anyone long has to have a mouse sell button on sentry. Monitor this one!

Review my blog at Investimonials:

Follow me now on Twitter:

Watch my instructional trading videos on YouTube:

Subscribe to Big T by e-mail:

Subscribe to Big T in a news reader:

The blog has a terms of service. Be sure to read it at:

No comments: