Thursday, February 24, 2011

Watchers for the 2-25-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Up after hours about 5% or so. Strongest volume yet, but it closed well off of the highs. Most of this might be tied to the Libya oil crisis, so as that goes so does this, to a degree. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. Up after hours, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades. You can only top fish on parabolic moves, not the measured rising this featured today. A long scalp on spiking up from or near the bell is still possible if it keeps up. Some of the above short scenarios are more likely to be held more.


First red day Supernovae in effect, in that it closed positive but below the opening price level. Finished green by less than 3% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the nominal degree of greening on Thursday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Biggest volume yet on the rise over 5 days. Down after hours, this could go red to green early and stay positive, but I am flat on that as well.


Past history on this shows after the 1 day spikes, it keeps reddening, even as volume declines. We had a decent red day today, but more might follow. Down after hours, I am flat on an early red to green, and on any consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level repeatedly. If it tries to fill the gap and fails at the flat line or just above and then exhibits confirmed weakness cues, like going green to red at any time or consistently trading under the opening price level, I am short. Also a fade on morning panic style heavy volume dumping, especially from or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps, especially down.


I'm looking for a hopefully early red to green long on this stock, down bit after hours that made new 52's today. A play based on momentum. Hopefully, we get a 6 test to sell into or hold longer on a take and hold with volume. Keep flat on consistently weak price action, like trading below the opening price repeatedly after the initial 5 minute noise candle, or heavy volume dumping, especially early. Also a long on spiking up from or near the bell, and long consistent trading above the opening price level. Spikes up are more likely just scalps.


Earnings reported today. Nice move up and more greening after hours. Could easily test 19 Friday. A long scalp on spiking up at or near the gun, and long on consistent trading above the opening price level. It could gap and crap, but I am flat on that unless it really spaces huge up. Right now it is less than 4.5% up post market. Many will think the report is stellar and more optimists could arrive early tomorrow to squeeze shorts.


I like this merger play long on at or near bell spiking up for a long scalp, or more on consistently strong price action. I suspect even if more fools arrive tomorrow, that it will be like today and finish well off of the highs. Another strong possibility is immediate confirmed weakness cues to fade or massive dumping on volume at or near the gun, to short scalp into. I suspect the selling will be less panic oriented and more even distribution when some decide the deal achieved was more favorable to other shareholders. A live price action situation.


Mailer stock that has had a great run. Today it even took and held 2, with the biggest volume yet on the run up. I am looking for more, with even buying for a long if it trades repeatedly above the opening price level after the initial 5 minute noise candle. Or a spike up at or near the bell for a long scalp, which is less likely. It fell under 2 after hours, so an early red to green long might arise to go long. A fail at closing the gap at 2 is a clear short, and an immediate dump on heavy volume or one later in the afternoon is a short scalp at least. Whenever a promotion like this is dropped by insiders, it can lose tons in minutes, so keep that in mind. This is one of those cases where a special slippage limiting market order is a good thing to have handy.

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