Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Watchers for the 3-10-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Strongest volume yet, but it closed off of the highs. Up over 3% after hours, it might yield a rapid green to red or gap and crap entry on Thursday. I am in cash on any strength/greening. More of a gradual rise over 5 days. Conditional entry. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by over 29% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the solid degree of reddening on Wednesday. Up after hours, predictably. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Volume declining, which is not bad news for shorts.


See my comments for last time, they mostly still apply. This junker advanced again today, but its days are probably very numbered. It could be top fished, but only only parabolic moves and gapping. I doubt this kind of price action is in the cards, especially in light of how it advanced today. A great short in the making here on confirmed weakness cues or heavy volume dumping. Energy related, therefore scary, but this one is plausible.


I am looking for an early bounce long on this Thursday similar to the one seen on LNG today. That stock had a huge crash and burn candle the day prior, and it bounced early today. The listed stock is also an energy related number, so while it is not the best in terms of quality for that sector area, it might be bargain hunted. A long on at or near bell spiking up as a scalp. Also a long on consistent trading above the opening price level after the 1st 5 minutes. Down after hours, it might initially sell off even more, then bounce back or immediately go red to green and hopefully holds for the long entry. Keep flat on consistently weak price action, though.


Interesting story here. Research report released by Absaroka that is disputed by the company. Muddy Waters claimed they were short the stock, and they have felled other names on similar claims. A look at the daily chart shows some support breached at 4 bucks today on not huge volume. It dropped over 22% today. Now it's down almost 15% more after hours. It could easily drop MORE in morning panic at or near the bell, on in premarket if it trades then. Short scalp at least on such moves. Or, it could bounce hard UP on such oversold conditions when bargain hunters arrive, which is at least a scalp if it spikes early north. A live price action situation, obviously. It could initially drop more briefly and charge up from there, so it might not be advisable to enter except after the 1st 5 minutes, to see where the headwinds are. It's in play both ways.


This budding over extension resembles VASO from my list of last night. 3 straight hod closes. I am flat on consistently strong price action at this point. A fade play on confirmed weakness cues or heavy volume sell dumps. It might distribute at 0.25 on a test. A fail there would facilitate a short entry. Ideal is a nominally up or down or flat open that heads negative after 5 minutes of trading. Just be patient and do not try to top fish.


New 52's. Short term, these usually go higher. Sale rumors triggered a trader frenzy. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on any signs of enduring weakness. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Possible 12 test again on Thursday. 11.95 is the yearly high, made today, so if we take that and sustain over 12 it might keep going. It's also possible that it will be profit taken there, so that might be a sell point on the rise to test. Check out the volume the past 2 days, it has been quite dandy!

Unofficially, I am watching LYLP for a possible fade on weakness. It's way to cheap for my tastes, but the daily chart is interesting the past few days. A Pinkie, so be aware. Not sure if it's a promotion, but the volume and distribution of that has been curious. Down after hours, maybe that continues tomorrow.

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