Thursday, March 24, 2011

Watchers for the 3-25-11 trading session


See my comments for the last several days, which are still applicable. One caveat: It seriously weakened a bit today. True, another print days ago seemed to do so intra-day, but this is getting more risky to go long and hold every day, despite its finishing green yet again. It might hit 2 next. At this point, I would keep away from inching longs, and flat on positive price action. A fade on morning panic style dumps at any time, (scalps) or confirmed weakness cues. Hold time on shorts depends on if the decay continues or we get more rapid spikes up from more short covering, etc. Box and drop to wait out the ride if trying to short, if need be.


This other incher upper finally saw a red day close and serious intra-day weakness for the first time since officially going Supernovae according to my scan formula. So, it's like an initial red session one, in effect. It closed red by 6% so 2nd day down side gravy might arrive. If it had closed negative by much over 10% it would probably have less potential as a short on day 2. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the decent degree of reddening on Thursday. No after hours quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was big, which is not an optimum sign for gravy seeking shorts. Longs are just too risky anymore to buy into, like with ALZM above.


Official red floater scan again. A daily doji-like print today no less. See my comments for the 3/22/11 session, they basically still apply. Avoid longs, fade weakness only. Sometimes you are a few days early, like here.


Drug trial winner news PR. with New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on weakness. No after hours quote. Nice break out though. Such excitement can extend to a 2nd day, particularly at the open.


News blurb catalyst today sent this soaring over 71% and it's up after hours. Another live price action scenario, with longs more likely to be scalped on spiking up at or near the gun, and shorts either scalps or longer holds, depending on how hard they push profit taking tomorrow. It could easily gap and crap, or gap up and spike a bit initially, then dive hard down. Both are shorts. Any morning panic style dumps at any time or confirmed weakness cues are fades as well. I am more short biased as I see more paths to do that here. A spike up that decays will require top fishing, which is risky and usually bad, but it's a possibility in this case.


FDA clearance winner closed well off of the highs. This is a long scalp at or near the bell on spiking up. Possible early red to green long. It's down after hours a bit more than 1% currently. Late arriving longs might repeat similar moves early on a smaller scale. It could of course panic dump from or near the bell, or otherwise sport confirmed weakness cues for a fade as well. Another live price action call. What's nice about this play is it's near 4 as the decay from the highs was so big today we have easy stop placement for longs and a good marker for shorts on a breakdown under that to go by. It opened at 3.94 today, anything lower is obviously weak. Some old support on the daily chart is right at 4, which is also psychologically important.


It's been an amazing 3 days for this stock. Not sure if this clunker deserves it, but I suspect it has a bit more and a possible gap up again. Long on that if it starts advancing consistently after 5 minutes of trading. Looks manipulated, possibly in more ways than one. A quick read is:  I suspect it dives hard soon but it probably inches up again.

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