Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Watchers for the 3-31-11 trading session


1st real red day, Supernovae scan return. The previous session it had closed lower than it had opened, but was still green due to a gap.The bad news is today it finished down over 24.5% so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Wednesday. No after hours quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume, if not price range, was modest. That's not the worst sign for shorts to fade.


You know the drill by now. See my previous comments and those dating back a ways, most of that still applied and the evolution of the perspective is clear enough, too.  Longs have been charmed, surviving even the worst dumps on rebounds, but that cannot last forever. It's a short on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic dumps whenever they occur, but also a long on consistently strong price action. Bulls will have to monitor it all day live, to risk it at this point. Serious weakness has hit this during sessions, especially today.


Also see my comments from last time, as they are still mostly applicable. Daily doji print today advanced 1.5% or so due to a gap up, but closed equal to the open. Still in play both ways depending on price action tomorrow. Longs possible but require constant watching, at this point. The short is the play to wait for if possible, and given the diminishing volume and the unmoved result today. It has not shown clear cut weakness though, yet, so only fade blood in the water. We had a print like today a few session back, but it kept going.


Brand new Supernovae scan return. Up over 26.5% after hours. Strongest volume yet, but it closed well off of the highs. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap given the aftermarket moves. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades. A long scalp on spiking up from or near the bell is still possible if it keeps up. That's less likely with more buying after hours, but still possible. This is the first day it's up so big. Some of the above short scenarios are more likely to be held more.


Now on my official list, this carcass went up insanely again today Potential short on confirmed weakness cues, morning panic like dumps whenever the arise, or gap and crap green to red dives. Read this first: No moves of significance after hours. I am flat on any early greening or spiking up from the gun. You can risk a long scalp, but I will pass. It's hard to trust a Pinkie not to become a Stinkie and permit a dandy fade once it weakens.


An oldie but goodie. This carcass zoomed up over 112.5% today. News? I cannot find any that's obvious. Promotion? A quick check of the usual suspects did not turn up anything clear. Big buy volume into the close. Does somebody know something we do not? Good question. I for one do not trust a 2nd or 3rd day move up on this turd. I could be wrong, inertia is funny thing, but this is a short on confirmed weakness cues, morning panic like dumps whenever the arise, or gap and crap green to red dives. I am flat on early strength/greening or spikes up from or near the bell. I do not go long in a case like this flying blind. Low float.


Earning winner at new 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No after hours quote. The 6 re-test will be critical, whether it gaps over or under. Anything holding over is a long.

Unofficial watchers include: cheapie GOJO which is up big after 2 green days. Not sure why, so eventually it will become fade bait, hopefully tomorrow or Friday. It's possible to short without knowing the reason something is up, but you have to be careful, conservative, and only act once it begins to sell off on clear weakness cues and such. Keep an eye on ABAT which had news of investigation which sent shares down over 42.5% today. Up after hours, it could easily peter out on bargain hunter bouncing and fall some more on day 2. Watch 2 bucks to crack to enter if shorting. TLON nears a dollar test, it could easily hit that. If it takes and holds, it could squeeze even more. Long scalps on the attempts are possible here. Or a fail scalp off 1.

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