Sunday, March 06, 2011

Watchers for the 3-7-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Strongest volume yet, but it closed well off of the highs. Down a bit after hours, it might yield a rapid red to green on Thursday but I am flat on any strength/greening. This could easily go on longer, due to the oil crisis. Conditional entry. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by over 10% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the solid degree of reddening on Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Volume declining, which is not bad news for shorts.


See my comments for last time, they are mostly still applicable. After a 1st red day on this Supernovae scan return, a gap ruined things, but it closed in such a way so as to permit it to be treated the same. Be patient.


Again, my previous comments apply. This one also had a 1st red day of sorts, but it gapped up Friday and moved up less than 10% on lighter volume than the previous up day on the 2nd. Still waiting for a crack entry. It's true this one and ROYL are a bit scary to short with the middle east situation, but you can if you only fade clear weakness cues and you bolt fast on any squeezing intolerantly. You have no other choice with these.


Red floater scan return of a previous possible long swing which is now becoming profit taking bait. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Keep flat on early greening/strength. A fade on an early green to red and holds on volume. Also a fade on a flat or nominally down open that begins to trade consistently under the opening price level, or morning panic style dumping at any time. Gap up Friday eventually filled completely to finish unchanged, curiously. It showed up on my scan, despite not officially reddening. It is in play as an RF.


See my previous analysis and the day prior on this incher upper. It is seriously due to correct and stay that way on a session. It appeared on Thursday night that Friday was the day, but no luck. Volume is declining, which is another good sign for prospective shorts. I'm flat on more upside, but short only on real weakness.


New 52's. Short term, these usually go higher. Earnings play with a conference call which broke out nicely Friday. Another energy/oil number. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Currently, it is up not down after hours, so it might just gap fill and resume upward mobility. Long on that. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on any signs of enduring weakness. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up.

Unofficially, a couple of other new 52 week highs and or breakouts to watch for more upside Monday are EXFO CPST where lower volume was involved on the rise which might help it continue north and GMET which had a lot more volume but has really caught fire it seems, being up after hours currently as well. See my analysis for UDRL above, for general tips on entry in these types of plays. The after hours situation may vary.

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