Monday, March 07, 2011

Trade review 3-7-11

I got a few plays right today...



Students take note, this was a perfect play. Opening on a foreboding gap up, it steadily decayed, trading under the opening price level from the initial 5 minute candle. With a few hours left, a textbook afternoon panic dump slammed it red from the by now barely positive level it had been at. A subsequent rally and a weak close failed to go green again, and ended down over 3.5% today. This is the type of play to wait for!


Another heavy does of profit taking in nearly identical fashion occurred here. Big gap up faded from jump street, then in the afternoon it slammed red. Rally attempts failed, and it closed negative by over 7% today.


Patient stalkers were finally rewarded here, as this one morning panicked out of the gate, from a flat open. It dived hard red for 30 minutes, then subsequent rallies failed to green. It closed south by over 3.5% today.



This should have been a win. It started out looking weak, then it fell red outright at lunch, and it seemed like easy money. But shorts were whipsawed when it began recovering in the after noon, eventually going to the flat line by the finish. I could easily argue this as a push, given the unchanged finish, but most shorts would have entered on the break of the flat line, so they would be narrowly under water now, etc. I am so honest!


At first it seemed like a red day was in the cards. A gap up open printed the hod in the initial noise candle. Soon it went red, but it rebounded. Most shorts were not stopped out as the initial high was left intact on the rises, but most probably entered under the opening price, and a strong finish made this close unchanged. The degree of that net loss was probably minor, and those still holding are in the money A/H so it's almost a push.



Big gap up negated another entry for prospective shorts. It began falling under the opening price soon after the debut, and kept fading. The hod printed in the initial noise candle. Only a strong close prevented it from finishing below the opening price level, although it would have been green due to gapper. A no play, and very easy to avoid a loss situation. Ended positive by over 16.5% today. Shorts who bit on the fall below the open probably banked, but I'll take a push.


A gap up and crap sort of happened, when this fell under the opening price level in the initial noise candle. Longs never had a shot here. It completely closed the gap eventually then traded slightly positive into the close to end up green by over 2% today. The broader market was a factor, and it quickly became a no play case.

My unofficial picks were long possibles like UDRL and they mainly failed, given the Dow dive today. They were easy to avoid losses, given the price action and broader index behavior. CPST closed positive, but only due to a strong finish. I suspect most of my readers did not enter any of them in either direction at any time.

Daily record: W-3 L-2-P-2


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