Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Watchers for the 3-9-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by over 10% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the solid degree of reddening on Tuesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Volume declining, which is not bad news for shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. Strongest volume yet, but it closed well off of the highs. In fact, it closed lower than it opened, which proved to be the hod. Down a bit after hours, it might yield a rapid red to green on Wednesday but I am flat on any strength/greening. Conditional entry. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades. Longs have not had much luck except for the gaps, since it has not advanced and held.


See my comments for LEI above, for entry angles on this 1st red day Supernovae. They are quite similar. The plan is to play for more down side gravy, which is less probable given that it fell over 14.5% today. Only fade clear weakness and keep flat on any consistently strong price action.


New 52's. Short term, these usually go higher. Just released earnings and had a conference call, both of which apparently went over well with investors. No run up whatever, so it is a surprise which also bodes well for more upside gravy, although it is a big gap up on the daily chart. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on any signs of enduring weakness. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds but that is less likely to occur.


See my comments for AVCA above on this new 52's play. The conditions and entry advice are similar. Posted stronger Q4 results, which have impressed speculators. No breaking release or conference call though Up after hours, so it could gap fill and revamp, with a possible early red to green for the long.


On short watch after rising over 70.5% today, is this named changed carcass, which got mentioned favorably in some financial newsletter, or was promoted or both. Either way, it cannot last. No longs, I might consider a long scalp on a spike up at or near the gun, but that is about it. I am waiting to short into morning panic style dumps or confirmed weakness cues. Or, to do the same on a flat or nominally up or down open that fast heads south and steadily declines. Quote of a blurb I found online: "Despite the bullish move, investors should be aware that the savings provider has generated no revenues since its inception in February of 2007, while its net losses have totaled more than $214,900. Meanwhile, the firm’s balance sheet contained just $1,400 in total assets compared to $147,611 in current liabilities, as of its latest regulatory filing on August 31, 2010."


Nice run on what was a profitable penny stock territory swing play over the past several days, but 0.50 approaches and that is a psychological selling point. It is however in play both ways, with the key being how it reacts to a test of the 50 cent level. Short on a fail there, or any confirmed weakness cues or heavy volume panic dumps, etc. Long on a take and hold of the same price with volume and acceleration. I like the short if it cues better than arriving so late in the rise, which only is feasible on the conquering of the above price level. If it gaps over 0.50 and holds on  test and perks up off it the long is possible, too, as is a fade on a fall back under. A live price action situation. I have known of this stock for days but I like day trades, not swings.

An honorable mention for MWIS which soared over 471% today on an acquire deal with VRNG that might see more spiking up at bell to long scalp or an immediate or near open morning panic or gap and crap, either of which could be short scalped. Not on my official list because it is too cheap for my tastes, but a watcher!

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