Thursday, April 14, 2011

Watchers for the 4-15-11 trading session


You have to listen to the market to win in this game. Price action does not care what you think, it just is. This is the 2nd time in the past few weeks that a red day had no follow up. I said this would have to solidly take control of 2.50+ for longs to regain control. They did, and until this fails the herd rules. A pullback entry long that holds and perks up off of the above level as new support is possible Friday. Also possible is just a gap up and go which might be longed. Bottom line is whoever is winning the debate is the side you need to be on. Since this stock has proven to have more lives than a cat, I would be long unless we see confirmed weakness cues or heavy sell pressure dumps. If it fails at the above support level, maybe shorts will get another shot.


Seems to be consolidating, but we might still get a chance to fade this. 1.45 is a tough nut to lastingly crack, but longs need to vanquish it upwards and shorts need to do so downwards. Sell volume recently has been weak, not an encouraging sign for shorts. See my comments for last time, they still apply mostly. One good thing is it will be obvious if this breaks out above convincingly, at least, to exit or avoid entrance as a short. I am hoping it breaks down, of course. The pattern was classic, the volume on this one never inspired me.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 2.5% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is only moderately likely given the ordinary degree of reddening on Thursday. No after hours quote. Wait for a fail. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was fair, not a terrible sign.


Still no obvious news or promotion, despite it zooming early and often today, I am still short biased with cue signals to fade only, of course. See my comments from last time, they are mostly unchanged in terms of entry/exit/trade management suggestions. Biggest volume yet in accumulation. Being a short means being contrary, the trick is to wait for weakness to enter, stalking and waiting for the chance, after several up days.


Shorts might get a chance here, believe it or not. On a gap and go, this broke 6 but closed under it barely. The key is how it reacts to another test of the above key psychological level. Down a bit after hours, an early red to green and bust of 6 convincingly might be a long entry. If we fail on a 6 test, it might be shorted on exhaustion. Or a quick fake out over that and back under might be shorted, since it may keep fading as a fail.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No after hours quote. It busted through 8 and it's possible it might pull back and offer an entry on a test of that which holds and perks back up off of.


Solidly breaking out over 13.80 to new 52's, this one is similar to GA above, so see that for details on entry/exit cues and play management tips. Down a bit after hours, an early red to green long might arise. A pull back entry to the above previous ceiling if it holds on a retrace and perks up off of could be a long swing.

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