Sunday, April 17, 2011

Watchers for the 4-18-11 trading session


Longs held. Noise fest yes, but they did, so the direction is still in place more or less. You know the drill, see my previous comments, they still apply for Monday's one. I would wait for 30 minutes before fence sitting, with a generic long bias absent heavy volume dumping or confirmed weakness cues, before fence sitting. Almost an "undecided" daily doji print on Friday, with 2.75+ being key for longs to take out on a push to 2.


Again, see my still valid previous comments. Technically, I usually only watch a popped Supernovae for a 2nd red day, which arrived Friday, but here the "1st" one was only so due to a big gap down, it in fact closed higher than its open, so it's like Friday was day 1, so this is still in play as a gravy down side watcher short.


Finally some signs of weakness are emerging here. Refer to my previous comments which are still in effect. Closed lower than it opened but still positive due to a sizable gap up. Potential short on clear fading cues, etc.


New Supernovae scan return. Low volume riser initially, and it closed off of the highs. Volume has picked up a lot. This probably sneaked up on a lot of people, due to the gap up on the 12th. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long, since it has sported more measured moves on up. No after hours quote.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No after hours quote. It had some resistance at 10 and 10.30 which it took out. I know, Chinese stocks are not exactly trustworthy, but the chart is there. A pull back entry on a 10.30 test that solidly holds and retools back upwards is possible for long swings.


A stock that has never held its spikes on 1 day news catalyst moves, I am betting this one continues to fade tomorrow. It closed lower than it opened on Friday. If it looks strong early I am flat. Short only on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumps, whenever they arise. Also possible is an early spike up and a top fishing short on dying momentum green candles. This is riskier, but that paid off last time. If going that route follow a tight stop and be willing to exit if you guess that wane wrong, since this has squeeze potential.


I like this long on a successful 7 test and short on a fail there. No A/F quote. Gap in chart to fill for Bulls over 7 to 7.50 or so that could follow in the coming days. A live price action call depending on how it treats 7.

Unofficially, I am watching TMTF up on cancer related news for a 2nd day of upside idiocy if it looks strong. ITG is a Bullish Engulfing play that has great risk reward potential in terms of where stops can be set. Long over 17 and holds with a stop a hair under 16.75 or so.

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