Sunday, April 24, 2011

Watchers for the 4-25-11 trading session


Danger Will Robinson, danger! This is really getting creaky, even though it's still a long with constant eyes in theory assuming positive price action is in place. Biggest volume yet on the run up, but it weakened intraday. True, the floor held but it's also down over 7.5% A/H last check. Possible early red to green long if it recovers solidly, or heavy volume exiting at or near the bell for the short scalp, with the hold time dependent on how long it keeps falling. A live price action situation. Unless it dumps, I would wait several minutes before fence sitting, given the post session trades. What has been amazing is how well the floor has been supported on this thing, dating back many weeks!


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No after hours quote, but it has momentum.


Another annual high stock, this on rising over an earnings release. See my comments for the above stock, which broadly apply to this one in terms of entry/exit strategies & play management tips. Maybe strong early.


Earnings surprise and new 52's, with analysis similar to the above stock. They beat expectations, I am hoping for more, if less impressive upside. Up A/H a bit, but that could easily burn off before another reversal move.


A somewhat chancy bottom fishing expedition on Bullish Engulfing following heavy volume moves down and daily chart decay. Down A/H 1% so an early red to green long is a possibility. To play this, a long is usually entered once the stock goes green or better yet once it overtakes the previous session hod beyond the initial 5 minutes, which is 8.55 and a stop is placed just under the lod of the entry day conservatively, or liberally just under the previous day's low which was 8.18 and shorts are avoided.


The plan here is pretty simple, which is to see how this budding reversal off lows reacts to a possible 9 test. No A/H quote. If we gap over the above number slightly, and fall back under, a fade entry might arise. Also a short on a flat, nominally red or green debut that reaches for and fails at 9, on volume.  A successful test from underneath 9 and holds is a long if sporting accelerating prices and strong volume. Keep flat on all large gaps.


Twitter chatter drove this to new yearly highs, but I am looking for no more than a long scalp on spiking up at or near the gun on Monday. More likely it dumps instead for a short scalp which might be held longer if it keeps decaying slowly thereafter. Ordinarily more 52's and holds would be a long also, but I am flat there. A try for those that sells off sharply on an attempt is also a fade entry. The rumor legs here likely are limited.

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