Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Watchers for 4-25-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 15% last time, so more down side might be unrealistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is somewhat more likely given the decent degree of reddening on Tuesday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was significant, so was price range. Not ideal shorting signs.


Supernovae, still maturing and heading for day 3. Nice gap up lod open. Volume still increasing, so it may not be done yet. See my previous comments, they still apply mostly for entry/exit/play management tips. It's usually best to avoid top fishing, entering only on clear weakness or after the 1st red day. Box/drop if needed.


Bullish Engulfing. A former runner that might continue to see upside Wednesday. I like it long if it can hold 2.50 assuming it tests, or if it just prints above the open after 5 minutes. A stop just under the aforementioned level or the 1st 30 minute low tomorrow should be used. Low volume today on the rise, a plus. Cross fingers. Not into a short here, keep flat on real weakness.


Nice B/O today on volume. 3 test coming, which will be critical. I like this long on a take and hold of that level. I like it short on a fail fall there. Either scenario can happen on a flat on a nominal gap down open, or on a modest gap over which tests and holds or fall fails back under, respectively. Avoid all big gaps.


Another one similar to the above stock in price action today. Long over 0.25 and holds or a short on fall fail back under, etc. A flat open or nominal gap up/down holding over the above level and advancing would suffice for the Bulls, while a failed test works for Bears. If it opens under our level, that will be harder to play. Judging from past big days on the daily chart, this stock has trouble increasing gains, a good sign for shorts.


Big day and B/O on this beast. 18.50 is the key level to watch. If it tests it and holds, a long beckons. Also possible is a gap under and an early red to green move to buy into. Not into a short here, keeping flat on real weakness. Needs more volume, but the daily chart the past few months looks amazingly textbook.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Up A/H nearly 4%. No shorts, keep flat on true weakness. 3.50 needs to hold on any retrace of the move today, anything under 3.45 is probably a failure and suggestive of worst case stops.

Off record, I am watching LYJN for a fade on heavy volume selling or confirmed weakness cues after its Walmart deal news sent it soaring over 320% today. It could spike up from the gun, but I am flat on that.

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