Monday, May 23, 2011

Watchers for the 5-24-11 trading session


Supernovae, still maturing and heading for day 3. Nice gap up lod open. Volume lessening a bit, but it may not be done yet. See my previous comments, they still apply mostly for entry/exit/play management tips. It's usually best to avoid top fishing, entering only on clear weakness or after the 1st red day. Box/drop if needed. Another symbol, WAMUQ is also up similarly.


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed on the highs and above the open. Volume is rising fast. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up over 1.5% A/H. Possible delayed reaction to earnings but those are arguably a mixed bag. This should be a good fade once they take profits. Shaky financials but a low float, so squeezes are possible which is why blood in the water is needed first.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (10+) and holds. Down A/H nominally. No shorts, keep flat on true weakness. 9.80 needs to hold on any retrace of the move today, anything under 9.75 is probably a failure and suggestive of worst case stops.


Another yearly high play, similar in particulars to the above equity. See those comments for entry/exit/play management tips. Avoid big gaps here in any direction. Differences are it's up A/H over 1.5% and earnings were released today. Holding 8 is going to be key, or falling under early and reclaiming it to reach for 8.50+ Stop placement aside from early noise is obviously just under 8 or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow.


Also an annual high, see my analysis for CKSW above, for entry/exit/play management ideas as this play resembles that roughly. Analyst buzz might have contributed to the move today. Obviously 5 awaits and will be a critical test of its chances for longs. A fail there is a bad sign, but keep flat on that. A success is a long. Plays like this are good because the feedback point is close and helps with stop placement and risk control.


2 test coming. Some heavy promotion, online and possibly a mailer. The number mentioned is a good dump point which a fail at is a potential short. If we take and hold that all bets are off and it may have more. In any case, the rise to test our level is a potential long with constant monitoring. A live price action situation, natch.


A blast from the past, huge promotion in recent years. Right near some recent resistance at 0.11 and looking for more. Nice volume. Clearly a short on a fail at the above level or morning panic style dumps wherever they occur, especially out of or near the gate. PR induced move, not sure if any promotion is in effect or if it's coming. Long above the ceiling and holds, with constant monitoring. A live price action call, obviously.

Off table, I'm watching possible flooring of HRZ for a perk up off of support long or a short on a break under. The daily chart shows 0.83 as a returning floor. A fail under 0.80 would do nicely. TBBC is getting new promotion today, and it's been inching up lately. Not sure if it can reach 1.75 or 2 but it's a watcher. You can risk a monitored long on strong price action and a stop just under 1.50 or wait to fade this. Longs need to hold over 1.50 at any rate. We closed there, so any flat or modest gap up that fall fails back under is a short. HENC looks interesting, the volume near the close especially. Closing at 0.50 it needs to hold that for longs or fail fall under for shorts. Some previous resistance at 0.40 which might be a new level of support.

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