Sunday, June 12, 2011

Watchers for the 6-13-11 trading session


This is really close to breaking down now that the broader indexes are on the verge of sustained failure. It's under 20 bucks but not a penny stock, though such "real" stocks are often easier to play (short, of course!) during Bear runs. One interesting point about this "breakdown" (reverse of more known B/O) is from the consolidating price action it's red day of over 3.5% was on very light volume. That means if it busts downward, more might follow easier since everyone is not already in, etc. Fade on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumps if they occur at any time, and on sustained pricing under 17.06 is the trigger. No longs, keep flat on consistently strong price action.


New Supernovae scan return. A 6 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume is still decent. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.


See the above play, which this one generally resembles, for entry/exit/play management tips. A 5 day irregular move upwards with the strongest volume yet on the rise. Up another 7.5%+ A/H which is a good sign as they might profit take soon on such good fortune. A gap and crap seems all that much more likely, or parabolic spiking up at or near the gun to fade on dying momentum green candles, though that would require top timing.


Another B/O potential long, which seems poised to test 10 and holds for the entry. Keep flat on immediate selling off or a fail there. One negative aspect was its huge volume on the nearly 9% up day on Friday. That might mean fewer hands are available that are not already in. Still, anything powering over and holding 9.91 seems promising, with a 10.01 or better and holds it could keep going.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Friday or better yet the high. Medium volume on the nominal rise, which is not a bad sign for buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under today's close, too. The low is reasonably close, or if just under 3.25 is used alternatively it would also address risk management for stops. Heavy (climax?) volume selling until today, indicating reversal. Several session of reddening deeply prefaced the up day Friday, another good sign.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (12.89) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice B/O to make a new annual top price, with huge volume which is not the best sign for new longs. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 10.74 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


This might go Supernovae formally before it's all over, so do not be too eager here just yet unless it gaps up and craps or otherwise sports confirmed weakness cues or morning panic like dumps at any time tomorrow. Up nearly 150% in one day, this China Cheapie may soon be a potential short. Another 3 test will be key. I am flat on further upside, though. Possible rumor mill which should be fade bait but the float is so small a squeeze of too early naive shorts is very much at risk. Do not try to top time this, only chase the ambulance.

Off record, keep and eye on another Bullish Engulfing play, WAMUQ which is too cheap to make my main list. Similar to SPF above, it is potentially a long above the close or high of Friday with stops probably more conservatively placed under the close last time since the low is too far away. Or under the initial 30 minute one of Monday. This one often has another day in it on big moves up, the next day. Low volume riser, too, a good sign for the bigger print to arrive next time.

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