Thursday, June 30, 2011

Watchers for the 7-1-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 10% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Thursday. Down over 6.5% A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, but range bigger. A mixed bag for new shorts.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Thursday or better yet the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Up A/H a bit over 3% so that may not arise. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. The low on that day is probably too far away to use for risk management via stops. May fall back under 1.00 but if not it might mean more upside awaits. A fail at 1 means no longs, but I am flat on that if it does. We should know early on if it will hold it.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (15.15) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Thursday close or at least over 15.00 at worst on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice move on modest volume to again overtake 15, which may help new longs if it continues.


I like this long on a continuation of momentum above 4.91 as a trigger. Not a 52 week high B/O yet, but could be as soon as tomorrow. Analysis for it is as for the above stock if it rises over 4.95 and especially 5. Keep flat on real weakness aside from the usual weak open and red to green move trick. Generating buzz.


Another 52 week high stock on the move, this posted a big income jump. Like END but with more likelihood of an early scalp long from spiking up at or near the bell. If it holds steady, it might be held more typically.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today or better yet the high. Some resistance at key level of 6 so long over that and holds, too. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise today, a plus for new buys.


I like this long above 17.40 and a corresponding B/O from consolidation. It rose on low volume today, not a bad sign for later longs if it triggers. No shorts, keep flat on clearly weak price action. Avoid all big gaps. Peak selling print June 17th, the price action seems clear that a break from the range is on tap at some point.

Off table, I'm still watching MSVP for a short under 4.23 or clear confirmed weakness cues. It seems to be consolidating annoyingly, even with interesting volume prints. No longs, avoid any big gaps. I fear this type of movement could last for a spell, but the patient should keep observing it for movement out of the price range.

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