Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Watchers for the 7-20-11 trading session


Supernovae, now maturing. Buy volume lessening, but still there. See my previous comments, they mostly still apply in terms on entry/exit/play management tips. The key is wait for a clear dump or afternoon fade, and of course to hope for a 2nd red day gravy play after the initial drop session.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 1.5% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the modest degree of reddening on Tuesday. Down about 1% A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range more imposing. Mixed signals for shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume erratic most days, now big. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down over 1% A/H.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (17.12) and holds. No A/H quote change. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move to make a new annual top price out of ascending triangle like consolidation. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 17.25 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Tuesday or better yet the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote change. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is possibly not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Must keep above 3 to remain viable as a long. No big gaps or shorts.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed negative by under 3% today. Stop above the previous day session high (3.40) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Tuesday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Fairly strong sell volume today not as promising for the short odds but it still could work out.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today, which was also the high. Needs to stay above 2 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is a bit far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise today, good for new buys.

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