Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Watchers for the 7-21-11 trading session


Essentially a 1st red day Supernovae, although it closed green due to the gapper, etc. The close was lower than the open. Finished "up" almost 4.5% last time, so real down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the medium degree of greening on Wednesday. No A/H quote change. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Buying volume was medium, range more sizable. Mixed signals for shorts. Only fade into clear faltering.


1st red day, Supernovae. Analysis is quite similar to that for the above play in terms of entry/exit/play management aspects. See those comments for further details. This one actually reddened, but by less than 5% today. It also had been more of a one day rise to get the advancement, on huge volume. Sell volume was also reasonably sized, so hopefully more is possible if it tumbles, preferably early.


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume small on most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up over 1.5% A/H.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (5.03) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move to make a new annual top price out of a deep price correction period starting early in the year. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 4.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today, or possibly the high. Needs to stay above 2.50 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise today, good for longs.


Tweezer Tops. I am not long (although some would argue it's a play in theory) on a take and hold of 0.35+ but I am short on a test and fail or on a flat or nominally down open morning panic like dumps wherever they arise or confirmed weakness cues, etc. Also short on a modest gap over and a fall fail back under our key level. I like the short potential due to technical resistance at the above level on the daily chart. A bit cheap, but oh well. Low volume riser today, but not yesterday. Avoid all big gaps. It's hammer top is a fade clue, too.


Here's a bottoming play with potential. A B/O today needs to be confirmed first. Down trending for months, it had modest volume on the rise, a plus. It could keep going higher. I like it long over the close or perhaps the high of today. Needs to keep over 4 ideally to remain in contention for the Bulls. Place a stop under that or more tolerantly at about 3.67 to manage risk on a swing. Avoid all big gaps. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. No shorts. Only enter on our triggers, and if it fall fails early under 4 keep flat. This does not include initial weak reddening that red to greens which can be longed if it happens in the 1st hour.

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