Monday, July 04, 2011

Watchers for the 7-5-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume prints getting bigger daily. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.


In play both ways. I like this long over 24.11 and short on a fall fail back under 24 or a rebuffed attempt. Could use a bit more volume. Avoid all big gaps. The easiest play will be a flat or nominally up/down debut that challenges 24 successfully, and overtakes the trigger price. Or the same with a ceiling at 24. Any gap over 24 needs to be played carefully. If it's just over, and holds on a test and perks off, longs are in play. If it does not hold the floor, a short is. As usual, heavy volume spikes up or down are scalp bait with discretion.


See my above analysis for general tips on entry/exit/ play management, which apply here as well. Another one in play both ways. Here, the trigger level is 30.00 and it needs to take and hold that to go long. A fail there is a short. Be careful handling gaps as usual. Fast, closely available feedback points are good to have in a trade.


Another one like the above 2 picks. See the analysis for those as a general guide. In play both ways. Nice low volume rise past few sessions, so hopefully more awaits if a long triggers. The 3 test is the obvious basic psychological level to deal with first. Trigger over 3.12 and holds with increasing volume. Short on 3 failures.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (3.91) and holds. Down barely A/H which might aid r/g's. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 3.60 at worst on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice move on medium volume out of an ascending triangle like consolidation.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Friday or better yet the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is probably not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Might stall at 8.00 but if not it might mean more upside awaits. Support at 5 is clear.


News catalyst sent this soaring Friday. It's up over 160% A/H and it should provide a trade or two Tuesday but be careful of squeezes. Very cheap, too, so take that in consideration, too. Big gap up last time sold off hard from the gun, a pattern which might be seen again tomorrow, particularly as so many new buyers have jumped in. Fade only on confirmed weakness cues. This could spike up even more from the bell, too. You can scalp this long, with care. Naturally a morning panic is a quickie in the other direction as is about equally possible. This is a live price action scenario, but I prefer the short it it sets up. It has more routes to enter on.

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